Hanau Santini, Ruth, and Andrea Novellis. 2026. “Paradigm Lock-In and Strategic Surprise: Explaining Israel’s October 7 Intelligence Failure.” Middle East Policy.
Political scientist
Visiting Postdoctoral Researcher at the Institute of Federalism, University of Fribourg.
(Post-)conflict political orders
I study how political authority is organised and contested during and after armed conflict. My research examines rebel governance, cooperation and rivalry among armed movements, and the institutions through which armed actors share or consolidate power. I am particularly interested in how ideological differences shape rebel cooperation and how wartime organisations and governing arrangements develop into post-war political institutions. This work includes research on rebel power-sharing, selective violence after rebel victory, the management of political opposition, and the transformation of armed movements into political parties.
Early-warning systems
My research on early warning examines how institutions recognise emerging crises—and why they sometimes fail to act on available knowledge. I study the organisational filters through which information is interpreted, accepted or dismissed, and their consequences for political-risk assessment. This work connects the study of institutional decision-making with specific episodes of crisis-recognition failure, including Sri Lanka’s 2022 polycrisis and Israel’s October 7 intelligence failure. My interest extends beyond the availability of information to the assumptions and established interpretations that shape how institutions assess threats.
Food security and conflict
I examine the international politics of food security, particularly in conflict-affected societies in the Middle East and North Africa. My research considers how access to food becomes an instrument of political power, how food insecurity generates political vulnerability, and how these processes relate to instability and conflict. This includes work on the weaponisation of food and on food security during Syria’s post-Assad transition. Through my involvement in ITALIM and the Center on the International Politics of Food Security, I also contribute to research connecting food security with international policy.
Regional expertise
Kurdish politics
My work examines relations among Kurdish and non-Kurdish actors, particularly rebel cooperation, co-governance and the institutions of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria. It also addresses the administration’s external relations and conflict management in Turkey, drawing on fieldwork in Turkey and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
I am founder of RISC – the Italian Network for Kurdish Studies.
Sri Lanka
I study the JVP’s transformation from an armed movement into a political party, ethnic relations in post-war politics, and institutional responses to the 2022 polycrisis. My research also addresses youth peacebuilding under a victor’s peace, drawing on fieldwork and engagement with local academic and policy institutions.
Selected publications
Corradi, Edoardo, and Andrea Novellis. 2026. “Earning, Allocating, Providing: The Financial and Budget Management of the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria.” Civil Wars. Published online 8 September.
Novellis, Andrea. 2026. “Programmatic Incompatibility: Ideology, Trust and the Limits of Rebel Cooperation Among Syria’s Kurdish Actors.” Civil Wars. Published online 17 June.