Andrea Novellis

Research

(Post-)conflict political orders, early-warning systems, and food security.

Research themes

01

(Post-)conflict political orders

I examine how political orders are formed during and after armed conflict, particularly where former rebels, de facto authorities, and incumbent regimes retain coercive or institutional power. My research addresses rebel power-sharing, selective violence after rebel victory, post-war opposition management, and the transition from wartime governance to post-conflict rule.

02

Early-warning systems and political risk

I study why institutions fail to recognise emerging crises and how organisational knowledge filters shape early warning and political-risk assessment. My research examines crisis-recognition failures in Sri Lanka, Israel, and Palestine, including Sri Lanka’s 2022 polycrisis and Israel’s October 7 intelligence failure.

03

Food security and conflict

I examine the international politics of food security in conflict-affected settings, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa. My research addresses food-related political vulnerability, the weaponisation of food, and the relationship between food insecurity and political instability. This includes work on food security and stability during Syria’s post-Assad transition.

Regional expertise

Kurdish politics

My research on Kurdish politics examines political institutions, alliance formation, co-governance, and relations among Kurdish and non-Kurdish actors. It focuses on cooperation and rivalry among Syria’s Kurdish actors, the governance and external relations of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, and conflict management in Turkey. This research draws on fieldwork in Turkey and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

Sri Lanka

My research on Sri Lanka connects post-war political order with institutional crisis recognition. It examines the JVP’s transformation from an armed movement into a political party, ethnic relations in post-war politics, institutional knowledge filters during the 2022 polycrisis, and youth peacebuilding under a victor’s peace. This work draws on fieldwork in Sri Lanka and engagement with local academic and policy institutions.